Moorhead, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
|
NWS Forecast for Moorhead MN
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Moorhead MN
Issued by: National Weather Service Grand Forks, ND |
Updated: 3:46 pm CDT Jun 26, 2025 |
|
This Afternoon
 Chance Showers
|
Tonight
 Slight Chance Showers then Mostly Cloudy
|
Friday
 Patchy Fog then Sunny
|
Friday Night
 T-storms Likely
|
Saturday
 Chance T-storms
|
Saturday Night
 Chance T-storms
|
Sunday
 Mostly Sunny
|
Sunday Night
 Mostly Clear
|
Monday
 Sunny
|
Hi 61 °F |
Lo 56 °F |
Hi 81 °F |
Lo 64 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 65 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
Lo 61 °F |
Hi 84 °F |
|
This Afternoon
|
A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly before 5pm. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 61. East wind around 7 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. |
Tonight
|
A 10 percent chance of showers before 7pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 56. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Friday
|
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Light southeast wind becoming south southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. |
Friday Night
|
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 64. South southeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Saturday
|
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. South southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Saturday Night
|
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind around 7 mph becoming northwest in the evening. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Sunday
|
Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. West northwest wind 6 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. |
Sunday Night
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. West northwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. |
Monday
|
Sunny, with a high near 84. West northwest wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. |
Monday Night
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. West wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. |
Tuesday
|
Sunny, with a high near 86. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. |
Tuesday Night
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 61. North northwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south in the evening. |
Wednesday
|
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. |
Wednesday Night
|
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southeast wind 8 to 10 mph. |
Thursday
|
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Moorhead MN.
|
Weather Forecast Discussion
755
FXUS63 KFGF 261847
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
147 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorm chances
late Friday afternoon into Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Scattered showers continue along and south of the I-94 corridor.
Overall amounts will be light, with most locations seeing up to
a tenth or two of rainfall. This is in part due to dry air near
the surface limiting amount of rain from reaching the ground, as
noted by area surface RH values below 80% except under highest
radar reflectivities, as well as overall weak nature of forcing
and absence of instability.
As this weak wave moves northeast into northern MN, light
showers and sprinkles will pull eastward more into west-central
MN toward north-central MN. Again still very light amounts. No
lightning is expected with this activity.
UPDATE
Issued at 729 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Tweeked sky cover some as a clearer area remains from Grand
Forks to Baudette with sunshine. Mid and high clouds will move
in but slowed it down. In far SE ND radar returns indicate
sprinkles or very light rain showers increasing as they move out
of SD. Did tweek pops some a bit northward to account for very
light rain showers this morning up to Valley City-Fargo.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
...Synopsis...
Dry across the forecast area tonight, much drier than what was
forecast 24 hours ago. There is a short wave moving northeast
south central South Dakota and Nebraska northeast into central
MN this afternoon. A new area of rain showers and t-storms will
be with this wave, with the far south getting the far north edge
showers. The heavier rain with this wave does look to fall more
in far southern MN with only light amounts (mostly less than
0.10) in our south fcst area. Fargo-Bemidji and north dry today
but rather cloudy, though some sunny breaks at times. There is
expanding MVFR and IFR cloud deck that will be over much of the
area this morning into the aftn....will have to see how far
north the MVFR ceilings get but they may reach most areas except
far north and northeast fcst area. With the cloud cover temps
today will remain below normal.
Some clearing tonight, esp north, but with west-southwest flow
at 500 mb likely at least some mid/high clouds remain.
Line of thunderstorms is forecast to form from north of Regina
into northeast Montana late today and move into far NW ND and
western Manitoba before likely dissipating.
...Friday and Saturday severe storm chances...
There are differences, sometimes pretty big, in terms of
instability and t-storm development and coverage Friday
aftn/night. Many short term CAM models do keep some light shower
activity remaining in SW Manitoba and NW ND thru the morning
with cloud cover limiting heating. CAMs in particular show this
with NAMnest, HRRR, NSSL CAMs, really backing off sfc and mean
layer CAPE esp in how far north it gets Friday afternoon. HRRR
in particular keeps temps cooler in north central ND into
Manitoba with mid 70s to low 80s and dew pts low 60s vs global
model GFS wants to bring up near 70 dew pts into central ND by
00z. Thus GFS is more unstable with surface CAPE values over
3000 j/kg into SW Manitoba, vs CAMs showing more like 2100 j/kg
into SW Manitoba. Idea thought yesterday of a complex forming
in SW Manitoba and moving southeast may still play out or it is
possible the complex forms more in central ND and moves
southeast more into SD as some CAMs indicate. SPC discussion
agrees that initially supercell in central ND with 0-6 km shear
35-40 kts, ample enough, then growth upscale into a complex, but
where that is and 850 mb low level jet seems a bit weaker again
around 30 kts into E ND/WC MN after 06z Sat, so unsure of
severity at that time. Tornado is possible in central ND but
more wind or hail threat in E ND, but some CAMS have limited
that.
So this means the confidence in how severe weather plays out
late Friday is lower than what it looked like 24 hours. SPC did
remove the sig severe for wind it had 24 years yesterday for
Friday but did keep hatched for hail in south central ND into
north central SD. 2% TOR also in central ND...and some NSSL cams
are slower with east progression Friday aftn of boundary keeping
supercell threat west of DVL. So lower confidence in degree of
severe storms, but threat remains.
Saturday does appear to have more instability as dew pts will be
higher mid 60s to low-mid 70s with mid 70s focused in E
SD/southwest and west central MN in the aftn. Sfc CAPE in those
areas of higher dew points are very high 4000-5000+ j/kg
centered more in far SE ND into WC MN and south. It would appear
that the weak sfc boundary, wind shift will lay somewhere across
north central, west central MN into northeast SD and that is
where a bit higher severe risk is located. SPC Day 3 has slight
risk in those areas which seem reasonable.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Area of IFR to MVFR ceilings will continue at TAF sites like
KFAR and KBJI through at least 15Z. There is a medium chance
for additional IFR to MVFR ceilings at other sites between
06Z-15Z, in addition to low chance for dense fog at KDVL, KFAR,
and KGFK. Chose to leave the fog out of TAFs for now given low
confidence in its occurrence over these areas.
Otherwise, lighter winds under 10kt will prevail, excluding
KBJI where winds between 10-20kt out of the northeast will
prevail through 00Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ
View a Different U.S. Forecast Discussion Location
(In alphabetical order by state)
|
|
|
|